Is it a Good Deal?: $301,000 for a four-room HDB flat in Tampines with remaining lease of 64 yearsHDB resale prices up 9.5% in 2024, slowing from previous quarter The Housing Development Board (HDB) flash estimates released on January 2, 2025, showed a 2.5% q-o-q increase in resale flat prices for the fourth quarter of 2024 – marking the 19th consecutive quarter of price increases in the HDB resale segment. This growth rate is slightly slower than the 2.7% q-o-q recorded in the previous quarter, indicating a moderate trend in the market.
Overall, the flash estimates also showed a 9.6% increase in HDB resale prices for the year 2024 – double the 4.9% growth registered in 2023. Although this is a significant increase, it is still lower than the 2022 price growth of 10.4% and the 2021 growth of 12.7%, according to Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group.
Caveat data from the Housing and Development Board downloaded from data.gov.sg on January 2, 2025, showed a slowdown in price growth for various flat types, notes OrangeTee. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the median price of four-room flats rose by 2.5% q-o-q, which is a slower pace than the 3.4% growth recorded in the third quarter of 2024.
Similarly, two-room flats saw a 2% q-o-q increase in resale prices in the fourth quarter of 2024, which is slower than the 3.9% growth in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, executive flats registered a 1.2% q-o-q price increase in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to 1.7% in the third quarter of 2024.
In contrast, the prices of five-room flats grew by 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, which is faster than the 1.2% increase in the third quarter of 2024.
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Resale volume down 3.6% y-o-y in fourth quarter of 2024
The resale volume for the Housing and Development Board declined by 3.6% y-o-y to 6,314 units in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to 6,547 transactions in the same period in 2023. This is also a 22.5% q-o-q decrease from 8,142 units in the third quarter of 2024.
Sun attributes the drop in HDB resale transactions primarily to the launch of over 8,500 new flats by the HDB in the October Build-to-Order (BTO) exercise, with many units located in prime and desirable locations. “The attractive features of these flats, including scenic views and proximity to MRT stations, diverted demand away from the resale market towards the BTO market,” she explains.
Sales are also typically slower during the year-end school holidays, when many Singaporeans tend to travel abroad. This leads to a decrease in house viewings and sales activities during this period.
However, Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex, believes that the slower pace of growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 can be attributed to government intervention in August 2024, when the loan-to-value (LTV) limit for HDB loans was reduced by five percentage points to 75%. “Based on the weaker sales and slower growth in the HDB resale price index in the fourth quarter of 2024, it is likely that the August 2024 measures have had an impact on the market,” says Wong. “Moreover, the lower resale volume during the quarter likely also contributed to the slower price growth.”
Record-breaking 1,000 HDB resale flats hit $1 million in 2024
The total number of million-dollar HDB resale transactions declined to 283 units in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 331 units in the third quarter of 2024 due to the decrease in resale volume. Despite this, the total number of million-dollar transactions reached a record high of 1,033 units in 2024, notes OrangeTee’s Sun. “This figure is more than double the 469 million-dollar transactions recorded in the previous year,” she points out.
Toa Payoh town led the million-dollar resale flat deals in the fourth quarter of 2024, with 58 such transactions. Out of the 58, 20 were for four- and five-room units at Alkaff Vista in Bidadari Park Drive, which had recently crossed the five-year minimum occupation period (MOP). (* Based on caveats and may differ from actual numbers.)
“The new Plus and Prime classification of BTO flats may have driven more homebuyers to seek out HDB resale homes in central locations,” says Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore. “These buyers are unwilling to accept the resale restrictions such as a 10-year MOP, rental restrictions after MOP, subsidy clawback upon resale, and resale income cap on future buyers.”
HDB resale prices expected to continue rising in 2025
According to OrangeTee, HDB resale prices are expected to continue growing in 2025, but at a slower pace than in previous years. “In many areas, prices have already reached new highs, creating affordability concerns for many potential buyers,” adds Sun.
Furthermore, the ongoing supply of BTO flats is expected to help moderate price growth in the secondary market. However, the degree of price stabilisation will depend on the number of BTO flats the government plans to release in the upcoming years.
In February 2025, the HDB will launch its largest sale of balance flats (SBF) exercise, offering more than 5,500 flats across various towns, says Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia. “Some prospective resale flat buyers have decided to wait to try their luck,” he adds.
Price growth and transaction volume to moderate in 2025
ERA expects resale prices to grow at a more measured pace in 2025 due to a reduced supply of flats reaching MOP, which has been a key driver of price growth in recent years, notes Lim. As such, he anticipates a 3% to 6% growth in HDB resale prices, with 26,000 to 27,000 resale units changing hands by the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, PropNex expects the HDB resale market to perform well in 2025, supported by healthy housing demand and fewer MOP flats coming onto the market. This may result in stable prices in the resale market, says Wong. “Resale flats will continue to enjoy strong buying interest from those with more pressing housing needs, applicants who cannot secure a BTO flat, and families with a tighter housing budget.”
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Wong believes that HDB resale flat prices may rise by 5% to 7% in 2025, with an estimated resale volume of 29,000 to 30,000 units.
The supply of BTO flats is expected to decrease in 2025 to 17,290 units, which is about 12% lower than the supply in 2024, notes Huttons’ Lee. “As there is no upfront information on the BTO projects with a shorter waiting time, buyers are likely to turn to the resale market,” he suggests.
Additionally, if interest rates decrease in 2025, buyers may be able to take on a larger loan amount to purchase a new home. “Some buyers may also consider buying an executive condo or a resale condo,” adds Lee. “The million-dollar flat market may stabilise at around 900 to 1,200 units in 2025.”
According to Huttons, it is projected that HDB resale flat transactions will end the year at 26,000 to 28,000 units, with resale flat prices likely to grow at a slower pace of 5% to 8%.…